Our Methodology

SignalSmith is built on battle-tested institutional principles — adapted for active traders who want an edge in every market environment.

Stage 2 Analysis

Every stock goes through four distinct stages: accumulation, advancing (Stage 2), distribution, and declining. We focus exclusively on Stage 2 uptrends — the phase where institutional money is actively flowing in and price makes sustained new highs.

What defines Stage 2?

  • + Price above rising 30-week / 150-day moving average
  • + 150-day MA above 200-day MA
  • + 200-day MA trending up for at least 4 weeks
  • + Price within 25% of 52-week high

Why Stage 2 only?

Trading in the direction of the primary uptrend dramatically improves your odds. You are not trying to pick bottoms — you are joining proven momentum after institutions have already started accumulating.

Relative Strength (RS)

Relative Strength measures how a stock performs compared to the S&P 500 over the past 12 months. An RS Rating of 90+ means the stock has outperformed 90% of all others.

The RS Line — our primary filter

We look for stocks whose RS line is making new highs — ideally before price breaks out. A rising RS line during a base formation signals institutional accumulation is underway.

RS 90+

Minimum threshold for consideration on most setups

RS Line at Highs

RS line must confirm price action — divergence is a red flag

RS vs. Sector

Stocks scored against sector peers for relative dominance

Signal Tiers

Not all setups are created equal. The Anvil scores every signal across multiple dimensions and assigns it a tier so you always know the conviction level at a glance.

Tier 1 — Elite

Perfect confluence: Stage 2, RS 95+, RS line at all-time highs, tight base, volume dry-up, and sector leadership.

Tier 2 — High

Strong setups meeting most criteria. RS 85+, Stage 2, clean base structure. Slightly wider parameters.

Tier 3 — Speculative

Early-stage ideas or developing setups. May not yet fully meet all criteria. Smaller position sizes recommended.

Entry Triggers

Finding the right stock is only half the job. We wait for precise, low-risk entry points rather than chasing extended moves.

Breakout from Base

Price clears a pivot point on above-average volume (150%+ of 50-day average). The classic IBD buy point.

VCP (Volatility Contraction)

Progressive contraction in price range and volume, culminating in a tight pocket before the launch.

Pocket Pivot

An up-day within or near the base on volume exceeding any down-day in the prior 10 sessions.

Pullback to Support

A controlled retest of a prior base or key MA (10-week / 50-day) in light volume.

Roots & attribution

Our methodology builds on stage analysis, relative strength and base-pattern concepts popularized by traders and authors including Stan Weinstein, Mark Minervini, William J. O'Neil, Gil Morales, Chris Kacher and Kristjan Kullamägi. We credit their published work as educational context.

SignalSmith and Signal Smith Labs are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by any of these individuals or their companies. SEPA® is a trademark of Minervini Private Access LLC and CAN SLIM® is a registered trademark of Investor's Business Daily. All trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

See the Methodology in Action

The SignalSmith Scanner applies every one of these filters in real time — surfacing only the setups that meet our full criteria.

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